New articles on Quantitative Finance


[1] 2501.05022

An Instrumental Variables Approach to Testing Firm Conduct

Understanding firm conduct is crucial for industrial organization and antitrust policy. In this article, we develop a testing procedure based on the Rivers and Vuong non-nested model selection framework. Unlike existing methods that require estimating the demand and supply system, our approach compares the model fit of two first-stage price regressions. Through an extensive Monte Carlo study, we demonstrate that our test performs comparably to, or outperforms, existing methods in detecting collusion across various collusive scenarios. The results are robust to model misspecification, alternative functional forms for instruments, and data limitations. By simplifying the diagnosis of firm behavior, our method provides an efficient tool for researchers and regulators to assess industry conduct. Additionally, our approach offers a practical guideline for enhancing the strength of BLP-style instruments in demand estimation: once collusion is detected, researchers are advised to incorporate the product characteristics of colluding partners into own-firm instruments while excluding them from other-firm instruments.


[2] 2501.05232

The Intraday Bitcoin Response to Tether Minting and Burning Events: Asymmetry, Investor Sentiment, And "Whale Alerts" On Twitter

Tether Limited has the sole authority to create (mint) and destroy (burn) Tether stablecoins (USDT). This paper investigates Bitcoin's response to USDT supply change events between 2014 and 2021 and identifies an interesting asymmetry between Bitcoin's responses to USDT minting and burning events. Bitcoin responds positively to USDT minting events over 5- to 30-minute event windows, but this response begins declining after 60 minutes. State-dependence is also demonstrated, with Bitcoin prices exhibiting a greater increase when the corresponding USDT minting event coincides with positive investor sentiment and is announced to the public by data service provider, Whale Alert, on Twitter.


[3] 2501.05299

Time-Varying Bidirectional Causal Relationships Between Transaction Fees and Economic Activity of Subsystems Utilizing the Ethereum Blockchain Network

The Ethereum blockchain network enables transaction processing and smart-contract execution through levies of transaction fees, commonly known as gas fees. This framework mediates economic participation via a market-based mechanism for gas fees, permitting users to offer higher gas fees to expedite pro-cessing. Historically, the ensuing gas fee volatility led to critical disequilibria between supply and demand for block space, presenting stakeholder challenges. This study examines the dynamic causal interplay between transaction fees and economic subsystems leveraging the network. By utilizing data related to unique active wallets and transaction volume of each subsystem and applying time-varying Granger causality analysis, we reveal temporal heterogeneity in causal relationships between economic activity and transaction fees across all subsystems. This includes (a) a bidirectional causal feedback loop between cross-blockchain bridge user activity and transaction fees, which diminishes over time, potentially signaling user migration; (b) a bidirectional relationship between centralized cryptocurrency exchange deposit and withdrawal transaction volume and fees, indicative of increased competition for block space; (c) decentralized exchange volumes causally influence fees, while fees causally influence user activity, although this relationship is weakening, potentially due to the diminished significance of decentralized finance; (d) intermittent causal relationships with maximal extractable value bots; (e) fees causally in-fluence non-fungible token transaction volumes; and (f) a highly significant and growing causal influence of transaction fees on stablecoin activity and transaction volumes highlight its prominence.


[4] 2501.05314

Analyzing the progress of Indian states chasing sustainable development goals using complex network framework

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) offer a critical global framework for addressing challenges like poverty, inequality, climate change, etc. They encourage a holistic approach integrating economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability to create a better future. We aim to examine India's responsibility in achieving the SDGs by recognizing the contributions of its diverse states in the federal structure of governance. As the nodal agency in India, the NITI Aayog's existing SDG index, using various socioeconomic indicators to determine the performance across different goals, serves as a foundation for assessing each state's progress. Building on the seminal works of Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) and Tachhella et al. (2012), which introduced the economic complexity/fitness index, Sciarra et al. (2020) proposed the SDGs-Generalized Economic Complexity (GENEPY) framework to quantify "complexity" by computing "ranks for states" and "scores for goals", treating them as part of a complex bipartite network. In this paper, we apply the SDGs-GENEPY, to evaluate the progress and evolution of Indian states and union territories over several years. This enables us to identify each state's capacity (and rank) in achieving the SDGs. We can interpret these complexity scores as "centrality measures" of a complex bipartite network of the states and the goals. This enhances our understanding of the complex relationship between state capabilities and the achievability of SDGs within the Indian context and enables data-driven policy-making.