New articles on Quantitative Finance

[1] 2208.07926

Mental health concerns prelude the Great Resignation: Evidence from Social Media

To study the causes of the 2021 Great Resignation, we use text analysis to investigate the changes in work- and quit-related posts between 2018 and 2021 on Reddit. We find that the Reddit discourse evolution resembles the dynamics of the U.S. quit and layoff rates. Furthermore, when the COVID-19 pandemic started, conversations related to working from home, switching jobs, work-related distress, and mental health increased. We distinguish between general work-related and specific quit-related discourse changes using a difference-in-differences method. Our main finding is that mental health and work-related distress topics disproportionally increased among quit-related posts since the onset of the pandemic, likely contributing to the Great Resignation. Along with better labor market conditions, some relief came beginning-to-mid-2021 when these concerns decreased. Our study validates the use of forums such as Reddit for studying emerging economic phenomena in real time, complementing traditional labor market surveys and administrative data.

[2] 2208.08300

Transformer-Based Deep Learning Model for Stock Price Prediction: A Case Study on Bangladesh Stock Market

In modern capital market the price of a stock is often considered to be highly volatile and unpredictable because of various social, financial, political and other dynamic factors. With calculated and thoughtful investment, stock market can ensure a handsome profit with minimal capital investment, while incorrect prediction can easily bring catastrophic financial loss to the investors. This paper introduces the application of a recently introduced machine learning model - the Transformer model, to predict the future price of stocks of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the leading stock exchange in Bangladesh. The transformer model has been widely leveraged for natural language processing and computer vision tasks, but, to the best of our knowledge, has never been used for stock price prediction task at DSE. Recently the introduction of time2vec encoding to represent the time series features has made it possible to employ the transformer model for the stock price prediction. This paper concentrates on the application of transformer-based model to predict the price movement of eight specific stocks listed in DSE based on their historical daily and weekly data. Our experiments demonstrate promising results and acceptable root mean squared error on most of the stocks.

[3] 2208.08430

Individual Claims Reserving using Activation Patterns

The occurrence of a claim often impacts not one but multiple insurance coverages provided in the contract. To account for this multivariate feature, we propose a new individual claims reserving model built around the activation of the different coverages to predict the reserve amounts. Using the framework of multinomial logistic regression, we model the activation of the different insurance coverages for each claim and their development in the following years, i.e. the activation of other coverages in the later years and all the possible payments that might result from them. As such, the model allows us to complete the individual development of the open claims in the portfolio. Using a recent automobile dataset from a major Canadian insurance company, we demonstrate that this approach generates accurate predictions of the total reserves as well as of the reserves per insurance coverage. This allows the insurer to get better insights in the dynamics of his claims reserves.

[4] 2208.08169

Time is limited on the road to asymptopia

One challenge in the estimation of financial market agent-based models (FABMs) is to infer reliable insights using numerical simulations validated by only a single observed time series. Ergodicity (besides stationarity) is a strong precondition for any estimation, however it has not been systematically explored and is often simply presumed. For finite-sample lengths and limited computational resources empirical estimation always takes place in pre-asymptopia. Thus broken ergodicity must be considered the rule, but it remains largely unclear how to deal with the remaining uncertainty in non-ergodic observables. Here we show how an understanding of the ergodic properties of moment functions can help to improve the estimation of (F)ABMs. We run Monte Carlo experiments and study the convergence behaviour of moment functions of two prototype models. We find infeasibly-long convergence times for most. Choosing an efficient mix of ensemble size and simulated time length guided our estimation and might help in general.