New articles on Quantitative Finance

[1] 2205.06338

A Multivariate Hawkes Process Model for Stablecoin-Cryptocurrency Depegging Event Dynamics

Stablecoins, digital assets pegged to a specific currency or commodity value, are heavily involved in transactions of major cryptocurrencies. The effects of deviations from their desired fixed values (depeggings) on the cryptocurrencies for which they are frequently used in transactions are therefore of interest to study. We propose a model for this phenomenon using a multivariate mutually-exciting Hawkes process, and present a numerical example applying this model to Tether (USDT) and Bitcoin (BTC).

[2] 2205.06434

Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection under non-Markovian regime-switching model with random horizon

In this paper, we consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with regime-switching and random horizon. Unlike previous works, the dynamic of assets are described by non-Markovian regime-switching models in the sense that all the market parameters are predictable with respect to the filtration generated jointly by Markov chain and Brownian motion. We formulate this problem as a constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem. The Markov chain is assumed to be independent of the Brownian motion. So the market is incomplete. We derive closed-form expressions for both the optimal portfolios and the efficient frontier. All the results are different from those in the problem with fixed time horizon.

[3] 2205.06572

Dynamic Stochastic Inventory Management in E-Grocery Retailing: The Value of Probabilistic Information

Inventory management optimisation in a multi-period setting with dependent demand periods requires the determination of replenishment order quantities in a dynamic stochastic environment. Retailers are faced with uncertainty in demand and supply for each demand period. In grocery retailing, perishable goods without best-before-dates further amplify the degree of uncertainty due to stochastic spoilage. Assuming a lead time of multiple days, the inventory at the beginning of each demand period is determined jointly by the realisations of these stochastic variables. While existing contributions in the literature focus on the role of single components only, we propose to integrate all of them into a joint framework, explicitly modelling demand, supply shortages, and spoilage using suitable probability distributions learned from historic data. As the resulting optimisation problem is analytically intractable in general, we use a stochastic lookahead policy incorporating Monte Carlo techniques to fully propagate the associated uncertainties in order to derive replenishment order quantities. We develop a general inventory management framework and analyse the benefit of modelling each source of uncertainty with an appropriate probability distribution. Additionally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis with respect to location and dispersion of these distributions. We illustrate the practical feasibility of our framework using a case study on data from a European e-grocery retailer. Our findings illustrate the importance of properly modelling stochastic variables using suitable probability distributions for a cost-effective inventory management process.

[4] 2205.06673

Univariate and Multivariate LSTM Model for Short-Term Stock Market Prediction

Designing robust and accurate prediction models has been a viable research area since a long time. While proponents of a well-functioning market predictors believe that it is difficult to accurately predict market prices but many scholars disagree. Robust and accurate prediction systems will not only be helpful to the businesses but also to the individuals in making their financial investments. This paper presents an LSTM model with two different input approaches for predicting the short-term stock prices of two Indian companies, Reliance Industries and Infosys Ltd. Ten years of historic data (2012-2021) is taken from the yahoo finance website to carry out analysis of proposed approaches. In the first approach, closing prices of two selected companies are directly applied on univariate LSTM model. For the approach second, technical indicators values are calculated from the closing prices and then collectively applied on Multivariate LSTM model. Short term market behaviour for upcoming days is evaluated. Experimental outcomes revel that approach one is useful to determine the future trend but multivariate LSTM model with technical indicators found to be useful in accurately predicting the future price behaviours.

[5] 2205.06675

Research on the correlation between text emotion mining and stock market based on deep learning

This paper discusses how to crawl the data of financial forums such as stock bar, and conduct emotional analysis combined with the in-depth learning model. This paper will use the Bert model to train the financial corpus and predict the Shenzhen stock index. Through the comparative study of the maximal information coefficient (MIC), it is found that the emotional characteristics obtained by applying the BERT model to the financial corpus can be reflected in the fluctuation of the stock market, which is conducive to effectively improve the prediction accuracy. At the same time, this paper combines in-depth learning with financial texts to further explore the impact mechanism of investor sentiment on the stock market through in-depth learning, which will help the national regulatory authorities and policy departments to formulate more reasonable policies and guidelines for maintaining the stability of the stock market.

[6] 2205.06677

Collective behavior of stock prices in the time of crisis as a response to the external stimulus

We analyze the interaction between stock prices of big companies in the USA and Germany using Granger Causality. We claim that the increase in pair-wise Granger causality interaction between prices in the times of crisis is the consequence of simultaneous response of the markets to the outside events or external stimulus that is considered as a common driver to all the stocks, not a result of real causal predictability between the prices themselves. An alternative approach through recurrence analysis in single stock price series supports this claim. The observed patterns in the price of stocks are modelled by adding a multiplicative exogenous term as the representative for external factors to the geometric Brownian motion model for stock prices. Altogether, we can detect and model the effects of the Great Recession as a consequence of the mortgage crisis in 2007/2008 as well as the impacts of the Covid out-break in early 2020

[7] 2205.06744

Two strategies for boreal forestry with goodwill in capitalization

Two strategies for boreal forestry with goodwill in estate capitalization are introduced. A strategy focusing on Real Estate (RE) is financially superior to Timber Sales (TS). The feasibility of the RE requires the presence of forest land end users in the real estate market, like insurance companies or investment trusts, and the periodic boundary condition does not apply. Commercial thinnings do not enter the RE strategy in a stand-level discussion. However, they may appear in estates with a variable age structure and enable an extension of stand rotation times.