New articles on Economics


[1] 2503.16569

Research on the Influence Mechanism and Effect of Digital Village Construction on Urban-Rural Common prosperity Evidence From China

Urban rural common prosperity is the ultimate goal of narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas and promoting urban rural integration development, and it is an indispensable and important element in the common wealth goal of Chinese style modernization.


[2] 2503.16906

Darwinian spreading and quality thinning in even-aged boreal forest stands

Darwinian spreading of vigor, in addition to quality distribution, is introduced in a tree growth model. The size of any tree, within an even-aged stand, is taken as a measure of an inherited productive capacity, and then combined with quality thinning. For sparse cultivation density, the result is forestry without commercial thinnings; large trees cannot be removed since they are the most productive, neither small trees because the unit price of harvesting would be large. For large cultivation density, thinning from above becomes combined with quality thinning of large trees. Darwinian spreading of growth rate may correlate with quality. Quality thinning may enhance growth rate. Such effects combined, large trees still become removed but quality thinning becomes implemented in almost all diameter classes. At financial maturity, Darwinian spreading treated with quality thinning, the weighted mean breast height diameter is in the vicinity of 20 cm within stands of high planting density, and somewhat higher with low planting density. Quality correlating with Darwinian spreading of growth, and growth rate correlating with observed quality, trees grow bigger, the maturity size becoming closer to 25 cm - bigger than in earlier studies without tree-size - dependency of vigor.


[3] 2503.17144

Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists

What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on opposite ends of a bias-variance trade-off. While the low bias of LPs comes at a quite steep variance cost, this cost must be paid to achieve robust uncertainty assessments. VARs should thus only be used with long lag lengths, ensuring equivalence with LP. For LP estimation, we provide guidance on selection of lag length and controls, bias correction, and confidence interval construction.


[4] 2503.17174

How to Promote Autonomous Driving with Evolving Technology: Business Strategy and Pricing Decision

Recently, autonomous driving system (ADS) has been widely adopted due to its potential to enhance travel convenience and alleviate traffic congestion, thereby improving the driving experience for consumers and creating lucrative opportunities for manufacturers. With the advancement of data sensing and control technologies, the reliability of ADS and the purchase intentions of consumers are continually evolving, presenting challenges for manufacturers in promotion and pricing decisions. To address this issue, we develop a two-stage game-theoretical model to characterize the decision-making processes of manufacturers and consumers before and after a technology upgrade. Considering the unique structural characteristics of ADS, which consists of driving software and its supporting hardware (SSH), we propose different business strategies for SSH (bundle or unbundle with the vehicle) and driving software (perpetual licensing or subscription) from the manufacturer's perspective. We find that, first, SSH strategies influence the optimal software strategies by changing the consumers' entry barriers to the ADS market. Specifically, for manufacturers with mature ADS technology, the bundle strategy provides consumers with a lower entry barrier by integrating SSH, making the flexible subscription model a dominant strategy; while perpetual licensing outperforms under the unbundle strategy. Second, the software strategies influence the optimal SSH strategy by altering consumers' exit barriers. Perpetual licensing imposes higher exit barriers; when combined with a bundle strategy that lowers entry barriers, it becomes a more advantageous choice for manufacturers with mature ADS technology. In contrast, the subscription strategy allows consumers to easily exit the market, making the bundle strategy advantageous only when a substantial proportion of consumers are compatible with ADS.


[5] 2503.16438

Artificial Intelligence Quotient (AIQ): A Novel Framework for Measuring Human-AI Collaborative Intelligence

As artificial intelligence becomes increasingly integrated into professional and personal domains, traditional metrics of human intelligence require reconceptualization. This paper introduces the Artificial Intelligence Quotient (AIQ), a novel measurement framework designed to assess an individual's capacity to effectively collaborate with and leverage AI systems, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs). Building upon established cognitive assessment methodologies and contemporary AI interaction research, we present a comprehensive framework for quantifying human-AI collaborative intelligence. This work addresses the growing need for standardized evaluation of AI-augmented cognitive capabilities in educational and professional contexts.


[6] 2503.16458

Users Favor LLM-Generated Content -- Until They Know It's AI

In this paper, we investigate how individuals evaluate human and large langue models generated responses to popular questions when the source of the content is either concealed or disclosed. Through a controlled field experiment, participants were presented with a set of questions, each accompanied by a response generated by either a human or an AI. In a randomized design, half of the participants were informed of the response's origin while the other half remained unaware. Our findings indicate that, overall, participants tend to prefer AI-generated responses. However, when the AI origin is revealed, this preference diminishes significantly, suggesting that evaluative judgments are influenced by the disclosure of the response's provenance rather than solely by its quality. These results underscore a bias against AI-generated content, highlighting the societal challenge of improving the perception of AI work in contexts where quality assessments should be paramount.


[7] 2503.16503

AIDetection: A Generative AI Detection Tool for Educators Using Syntactic Matching of Common ASCII Characters As Potential 'AI Traces' Within Users' Internet Browser

This paper introduces a simple JavaScript-based web application designed to assist educators in detecting AI-generated content in student essays and written assignments. Unlike existing AI detection tools that rely on obfuscated machine learning models, AIDetection.info employs a heuristic-based approach to identify common syntactic traces left by generative AI models, such as ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, Gemini, Llama/Meta, Microsoft Copilot, Grammarly AI, and other text-generating models and wrapper applications. The tool scans documents in bulk for potential AI artifacts, as well as AI citations and acknowledgments, and provides a visual summary with downloadable Excel and CSV reports. This article details its methodology, functionalities, limitations, and applications within educational settings.


[8] 2503.16517

From G-Factor to A-Factor: Establishing a Psychometric Framework for AI Literacy

This research addresses the growing need to measure and understand AI literacy in the context of generative AI technologies. Through three sequential studies involving a total of 517 participants, we establish AI literacy as a coherent, measurable construct with significant implications for education, workforce development, and social equity. Study 1 (N=85) revealed a dominant latent factor - termed the "A-factor" - that accounts for 44.16% of variance across diverse AI interaction tasks. Study 2 (N=286) refined the measurement tool by examining four key dimensions of AI literacy: communication effectiveness, creative idea generation, content evaluation, and step-by-step collaboration, resulting in an 18-item assessment battery. Study 3 (N=146) validated this instrument in a controlled laboratory setting, demonstrating its predictive validity for real-world task performance. Results indicate that AI literacy significantly predicts performance on complex, language-based creative tasks but shows domain specificity in its predictive power. Additionally, regression analyses identified several significant predictors of AI literacy, including cognitive abilities (IQ), educational background, prior AI experience, and training history. The multidimensional nature of AI literacy and its distinct factor structure provide evidence that effective human-AI collaboration requires a combination of general and specialized abilities. These findings contribute to theoretical frameworks of human-AI collaboration while offering practical guidance for developing targeted educational interventions to promote equitable access to the benefits of generative AI technologies.


[9] 2503.17156

Reallocating Wasted Votes in Proportional Parliamentary Elections with Thresholds

In many proportional parliamentary elections, electoral thresholds (typically 3-5%) are used to promote stability and governability by preventing the election of parties with very small representation. However, these thresholds often result in a significant number of "wasted votes" cast for parties that fail to meet the threshold, which reduces representativeness. One proposal is to allow voters to specify replacement votes, by either indicating a second choice party or by ranking a subset of the parties, but there are several ways of deciding on the scores of the parties (and thus the composition of the parliament) given those votes. We introduce a formal model of party voting with thresholds, and compare a variety of party selection rules axiomatically, and experimentally using a dataset we collected during the 2024 European election in France. We identify three particularly attractive rules, called Direct Winners Only (DO), Single Transferable Vote (STV) and Greedy Plurality (GP).


[10] 2503.17290

Calibration Strategies for Robust Causal Estimation: Theoretical and Empirical Insights on Propensity Score Based Estimators

The partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators like inverse probability weighting (IPW) and double/debiased machine learning (DML) frameworks. We extend recent advances in calibration techniques for propensity score estimation, improving the robustness of propensity scores in challenging settings such as limited overlap, small sample sizes, or unbalanced data. Our contributions are twofold: First, we provide a theoretical analysis of the properties of calibrated estimators in the context of DML. To this end, we refine existing calibration frameworks for propensity score models, with a particular emphasis on the role of sample-splitting schemes in ensuring valid causal inference. Second, through extensive simulations, we show that calibration reduces variance of inverse-based propensity score estimators while also mitigating bias in IPW, even in small-sample regimes. Notably, calibration improves stability for flexible learners (e.g., gradient boosting) while preserving the doubly robust properties of DML. A key insight is that, even when methods perform well without calibration, incorporating a calibration step does not degrade performance, provided that an appropriate sample-splitting approach is chosen.