New articles on Economics

[1] 2205.06363

Causal Estimation of Position Bias in Recommender Systems Using Marketplace Instruments

Information retrieval systems, such as online marketplaces, news feeds, and search engines, are ubiquitous in today's digital society. They facilitate information discovery by ranking retrieved items on predicted relevance, i.e. likelihood of interaction (click, share) between users and items. Typically modeled using past interactions, such rankings have a major drawback: interaction depends on the attention items receive. A highly-relevant item placed outside a user's attention could receive little interaction. This discrepancy between observed interaction and true relevance is termed the position bias. Position bias degrades relevance estimation and when it compounds over time, it can silo users into false relevant items, causing marketplace inefficiencies. Position bias may be identified with randomized experiments, but such an approach can be prohibitive in cost and feasibility. Past research has also suggested propensity score methods, which do not adequately address unobserved confounding; and regression discontinuity designs, which have poor external validity. In this work, we address these concerns by leveraging the abundance of A/B tests in ranking evaluations as instrumental variables. Historical A/B tests allow us to access exogenous variation in rankings without manually introducing them, harming user experience and platform revenue. We demonstrate our methodology in two distinct applications at LinkedIn - feed ads and the People-You-May-Know (PYMK) recommender. The marketplaces comprise users and campaigns on the ads side, and invite senders and recipients on PYMK. By leveraging prior experimentation, we obtain quasi-experimental variation in item rankings that is orthogonal to user relevance. Our method provides robust position effect estimates that handle unobserved confounding well, greater generalizability, and easily extends to other information retrieval systems.

[2] 2205.06572

Dynamic Stochastic Inventory Management in E-Grocery Retailing: The Value of Probabilistic Information

Inventory management optimisation in a multi-period setting with dependent demand periods requires the determination of replenishment order quantities in a dynamic stochastic environment. Retailers are faced with uncertainty in demand and supply for each demand period. In grocery retailing, perishable goods without best-before-dates further amplify the degree of uncertainty due to stochastic spoilage. Assuming a lead time of multiple days, the inventory at the beginning of each demand period is determined jointly by the realisations of these stochastic variables. While existing contributions in the literature focus on the role of single components only, we propose to integrate all of them into a joint framework, explicitly modelling demand, supply shortages, and spoilage using suitable probability distributions learned from historic data. As the resulting optimisation problem is analytically intractable in general, we use a stochastic lookahead policy incorporating Monte Carlo techniques to fully propagate the associated uncertainties in order to derive replenishment order quantities. We develop a general inventory management framework and analyse the benefit of modelling each source of uncertainty with an appropriate probability distribution. Additionally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis with respect to location and dispersion of these distributions. We illustrate the practical feasibility of our framework using a case study on data from a European e-grocery retailer. Our findings illustrate the importance of properly modelling stochastic variables using suitable probability distributions for a cost-effective inventory management process.

[3] 2205.06583

The Value of Information in Stopping Problems

We consider stopping problems in which a decision maker (DM) faces an unknown state of nature and decides sequentially whether to stop and take an irreversible action; pay a fee and obtain additional information; or wait without acquiring information. We discuss the value and quality of information. The former is the maximal discounted expected revenue the DM can generate. We show that among all history-dependent fee schemes, the upfront scheme (as opposed, for instance, to pay-for-use) is optimal: it generates the highest possible value of information. The effects on the optimal strategy of obtaining information from a more accurate source and of having a higher discount factor are distinct, as far as expected stopping time and its distribution are concerned. However, these factors have a similar effect in that they both enlarge the set of cases in which the optimal strategy prescribes waiting.

[4] 2205.06713

A Robust Permutation Test for Subvector Inference in Linear Regressions

We develop a new permutation test for inference on a subvector of coefficients in linear models. The test is exact when the regressors and the error terms are independent. Then, we show that the test is consistent and has power against local alternatives when the independence condition is relaxed, under two main conditions. The first is a slight reinforcement of the usual absence of correlation between the regressors and the error term. The second is that the number of strata, defined by values of the regressors not involved in the subvector test, is small compared to the sample size. Simulations and an empirical illustration suggest that the test has good power in practice.

[5] 2205.06744

Two strategies for boreal forestry with goodwill in capitalization

Two strategies for boreal forestry with goodwill in estate capitalization are introduced. A strategy focusing on Real Estate (RE) is financially superior to Timber Sales (TS). The feasibility of the RE requires the presence of forest land end users in the real estate market, like insurance companies or investment trusts, and the periodic boundary condition does not apply. Commercial thinnings do not enter the RE strategy in a stand-level discussion. However, they may appear in estates with a variable age structure and enable an extension of stand rotation times.