[2607.05413]
Laia Domenech Burin
Open Source Software (OSS) forms a critical layer of contemporary digital infrastructure, yet remains largely overlooked by the institutions and societies that depend on it. Despite growing institutional interest, the causal impact of public funding on OSS project sustainability remains empirically unresolved. Existing literature is divided between econometric and socio-technical approaches with few attempts at causal identification. This work aims to bridge that divide by combining a Goal-Question-Metric framework with the Generalized Synthetic Control Method to estimate the causal effect of the Sovereign Tech Fund on OSS repository activity. Counterfactual trajectories are constructed from a matched donor pool of unfunded projects, enabling identification of what funded repositories would have looked like in the absence of intervention. The main results show that the funding has a significant positive effect on project velocity metrics: commits, pull requests --both merged and new ones--, and new issues. There is no significant effect on the number of releases, contributors or closed issues. This indicates that the STF funding mobilises existing development activity rather than expanding the contributor base or accelerating backlog resolution. These findings carry practical implications for the design of public OSS funding evaluation frameworks, where assessment metrics should be matched to programme objectives rather than applied uniformly across interventions.