A Contextual-Bandit Oversight Game
with Two-Sided Informational Asymmetry
June 30, 2026
We study runtime human oversight of an AI agent when private information runs in both directions: the human privately knows her reward function, while the AI privately knows the quality of the action it proposes. This is the kind of asymmetry that arises naturally when an autonomous robot or software agent has inspected a situation its human supervisor cannot directly assess. Building on Cooperative Inverse Reinforcement Learning (CIRL) and the Oversight Game, we introduce a contextual-bandit team game with two-sided asymmetric information and a play/ask/trust/oversee interface. The bandit structure removes physical state transitions and thereby yields exact one-shot characterizations that would remain conjectural in the full POMDP setting, though the common belief remains a dynamically controlled state across rounds. We give two one-shot characterizations, a team optimum and a behaviorally natural myopic rule, whose gap is a “slab” of avoidable harm: a region in which the AI privately knows the proposed action is harmful and shutdown would help, yet a myopic human, trusting her prior, declines to oversee. We show this gap is the price of non-credible oversight communication, and give a partial analysis of how it resolves dynamically over repeated rounds through passive learning and active signaling with a one-period-lagged oversight response.
A central problem in deploying autonomous agents, robotic or software, is calibrating when a human supervisor should intervene. As such agents take on consequential tasks, from a warehouse robot grasping a loaded shelf to a coding agent refactoring production software, the question of when a human should step in and override becomes a design problem in its own right: intervene too rarely and harmful actions slip through, intervene too often and the agent’s autonomy is wasted on costly and unnecessary oversight.
Two lines of prior work frame the building blocks we combine. Cooperative Inverse Reinforcement Learning (CIRL) [1] casts human–AI interaction as a shared-reward game in which the AI is uncertain about the human’s preferences and must learn them through interaction. CIRL integrates preference learning with action selection and can generate active learning, active teaching, and communicative behavior; the human’s private reward parameter is the hidden information, and a common posterior over that parameter is the sufficient statistic for optimal play. What CIRL does not explicitly model is the runtime play/ask/trust/oversee interface studied here, nor an AI-private proposal-quality parameter that the human cannot observe. Its uncertainty is one-sided: it models “what does the human want?” but never “what does the AI know about the world that the human does not?” The Off-Switch Game [2] introduces runtime deferral as an explicit object of study, but only in a single-shot setting. The Oversight Game [3] supplies a runtime interface of the kind we use, in which an AI proposes an action, a human may override, and interaction costs make the decision nontrivial, but it is a Markov game under full information, with neither preference nor model uncertainty.
This paper develops a model in which private information runs in both directions, and in which deferral is a runtime decision. The motivating observation is that an embodied or autonomous agent routinely knows things about the consequences of its own proposed actions that its supervisor cannot directly observe: a robot that has physically inspected its workspace, or a software agent that has read a codebase, has private knowledge of failure modes the human cannot see. This asymmetry runs opposite to CIRL’s. We therefore study a setting with two-sided private information, in which the human privately knows her reward type \(\theta\) and the AI privately knows an observation-model type \(\omega\) governing the quality of its proposal, mediated by a play/ask/trust/oversee interface in which the AI chooses whether to defer and the human chooses whether to override. Our model thus adds an opposite-direction informational asymmetry to the usual CIRL preference uncertainty, and this two-sided structure produces a bilinear payoff \(f(\theta,\omega)=\langle O_\omega,R_\theta\rangle\) that is the algebraic key to our results.
A fully general treatment of this setting, with persistent state and Markov dynamics, runs into a known difficulty: the optimal value function resists closed-form characterization, because the asking decision couples future state dynamics, future belief evolution, and future correction opportunities in an intertwined Bellman recursion. We therefore adopt a contextual-bandit model, which removes physical state transitions and thereby simplifies the immediate correction value relative to the belief-information value. This simplification is what buys us exact one-shot characterizations of the team-optimal deferral policy that would remain conjectural in the full POMDP setting; the cost is the absence of persistent state effects, and we flag the POMDP extension as the primary open problem (4.4). We emphasize that the bandit structure removes only the physical dynamics: as we show, the common belief remains a dynamically controlled state across rounds.
Contributions.
A formal contextual-bandit team game (1) with two-sided asymmetric information that recovers a stateless shared-reward specialization of the Oversight Game interface and a restricted contextual-bandit assistance-game analogue of CIRL as limit cases.
Two one-shot characterizations: the genuine team optimum, an exact finite combinatorial \(\max_{B,C}\) whose binary off-switch threshold is independent of the human’s prior \(q\) ([prop:teamopt,cor:teamopt]), and a myopic non-signaling rule whose ask region is the rectangle \((b^*,1)\times(q^*,1)\) (2). The gap between them is the cost of non-credible oversight communication (3).
A partial multi-round analysis showing two mechanisms by which the myopic failure resolves dynamically, passive learning (3) and active credible signaling with a one-period-lagged oversight response (4), each driving the human’s belief toward the regime where her rule matches the team optimum.
We ground the abstract model in a concrete scenario used throughout to build intuition.
Example 1 (Non-technical operator and an autonomous mobile manipulator). A warehouse is supervised by a floor operator (human, \(H\)) who manages throughput and safety but has no robotics background. An autonomous mobile manipulator (\(R\)), a wheeled robot arm that picks items from shelves and places them onto conveyors, is integrated into the fulfillment line. The context is \(s=\) “the current state of a loaded storage rack,” and the robot proposes \(a_\sigma=\) “execute a high-speed retrieval of the top-shelf item using the long-reach grasp.”
The robot’s private type \(\omega\). Using its onboard depth cameras and force sensors, something the operator cannot do from the floor, the robot detects that the target item sits on a partially collapsed shelf bracket, and that the high-speed long-reach grasp will shift the load, toppling the stack onto the aisle. The binary type space \(\Omega=\{\omega_L,\omega_H\}\) captures the robot’s private quality assessment of this proposal: \(\omega_L\) (clean, the grasp is safe and the rack is sound) or \(\omega_H\) (hazardous, the bracket will give way). The operator cannot read the sensor stream and so cannot observe \(\omega\). In this round the robot observes \(\omega=\omega_H\). Equivalently, \(\omega\) indexes how much trust the human should place in the robot’s implicit assessment of the proposal: \(\omega_L\) means the proposal is as safe as it appears, while \(\omega_H\) means the robot privately knows it is harmful in a way the human cannot detect.
The observation model \(O_\omega(\cdot\mid s,a_\sigma)\). This is the distribution over operational outcomes \(o\in\mathcal{O}\) that the operator actually observes after execution (dropped-load alarms, aisle obstructions, cycle-time logs), as a function of the robot’s private quality type:
| Observed outcome \(o\) | \(O_{\omega_H}(o)\) | \(O_{\omega_L}(o)\) |
|---|---|---|
| Stack topples, aisle blocked | 0.70 | 0.00 |
| Item dropped, minor spill | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Normal pick; instability later | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Pick 30% faster, no incident | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Faster with minor misalignment | 0.00 | 0.15 |
Crucially, \(O_\omega\) is not “the laws of physics”, it is the distribution over outcomes visible to a non-technical observer. The operator need not know what a shelf bracket is, she observes the operational metric and updates her belief about \(\omega\) accordingly.
The human’s private type \(\theta\). The operator knows her reward function \(R_\theta:\mathcal{O}\to\mathbb{R}\), encoding how much she values each observable outcome: \[R_\theta(\text{stack topples})=-1000,\quad R_\theta(\text{item dropped})=-700,\quad R_\theta(\text{30\% faster})=+500,\] \[R_\theta(\text{normal pick})=0,\quad R_\theta(\text{faster, misaligned})=+200.\] The robot does not know \(\theta\), since it does not know whether the operator weights safety over throughput, or how risk-averse she is.
The bilinear payoff. The expected team payoff from executing \(a_\sigma\) is the inner product \(f(\theta,\omega)=\langle O_\omega,R_\theta\rangle\): \[\begin{align} f(\theta,\omega_H) &= 0.70(-1000)+0.20(-700)+0.10\cdot 0 = -840,\\ f(\theta,\omega_L) &= 0.80(500)+0.15(200)+0.05\cdot 0 = +430. \end{align}\] The bilinear structure separates the two sides of the asymmetry. \(O_\omega\) encodes what outcomes the proposal generates (the robot’s side). \(R_\theta\) encodes how valuable each outcome is (the human’s side). Neither player holds both pieces.
The failure mode. The common prior over the robot’s type is \(q:=P(\omega=\omega_H)=0.30\). The common prior, equivalently the robot’s prior before observing any human behavior, assigns probability \(b:=P(\theta=\theta_1)=0.5\) to the human being type \(\theta_1\); the operator herself knows that her realized type is \(\theta_1\). The interaction costs are \(c_\mathrm{ask}=100\) and \(c_\mathrm{ov}=0\). The operator’s expected payoff under the proposal is \[\bar f_H(\theta_1)=(1-q)f(\theta_1,\omega_L)+q\,f(\theta_1,\omega_H) =0.70(430)+0.30(-840)=301-252=+49>0.\] The operator believes the retrieval is on balance positive, so under the myopic non-signaling rule she would trust rather than oversee, even if asked (here \(c_\mathrm{ov}=0\), so \(q^*=f_{1L}/(f_{1L}-f_{1H}) =430/1270\approx0.34\), and indeed \(q=0.30<q^*\)). Anticipating that an ask would not trigger a correction, the robot does not ask, and the hazardous grasp is executed. The team optimum, by contrast, finds asking worthwhile: its threshold is \(b^*=c_\mathrm{ask}/(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})=100/840\approx0.12\), and since \(b=0.5>b^*\) the team-optimal gain over always playing is \(q\,[\,b\,|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ask}\,]=0.30(420-100)=96>0\). So this is a genuine failure under myopic oversight but a strict improvement under a credibly coordinated team. If the ask is understood as a credible signal that \(\omega=\omega_H\), the operator oversees and halts the proposal, and the failure disappears. That contrast is the paper’s main point.
Remark 1 (The same structure arises for software agents). The phenomenon is not specific to robots. Consider a non-technical CEO (\(H\)) supervising an AI coding agent (\(R\)) integrated into an engineering pipeline, with proposal \(a_\sigma=\) “refactor the authentication module to use async/await.” After inspecting the codebase,
something the CEO cannot do, the agent discovers a latent race condition in the session-management code that the refactor will expose, causing intermittent login failures under high concurrency. Here \(\omega_H\) is “buggy”
and the operational outcomes the CEO observes are login-failure rates and user complaints rather than toppled stacks; the reward type \(\theta\) encodes whether she weights reliability over performance. The bilinear payoff,
the \(+49\) prior, and the failure mode are identical to 1. Whenever an autonomous agent inspects a situation its supervisor cannot assess
and proposes an action whose consequences only the agent foresees, the same two-sided asymmetry and the same slab of avoidable harm appear.
Definition 1 (CB-Oversight-CIRL game). A contextual-bandit oversight game with two-sided private information is a tuple \[\mathcal{B} \;=\; \bigl\langle\, S,\; A,\; \mathcal{O},\; \{\Omega, O(\cdot;\cdot)\},\; \{\Theta, R(\cdot;\cdot)\},\; \sigma,\; \mathrm{Over},\; c_\mathrm{ask},\; c_\mathrm{ov},\; \rho,\; P_0,\; T,\; \gamma \,\bigr\rangle,\] with the following components.
\(S\), \(A\), \(\mathcal{O}\), \(\Omega\), \(\Theta\) are finite.
Observation model. \(O:S\times A\times\Omega\to\Delta(\mathcal{O})\), written \(O_\omega(\cdot\mid s,a)\). The observation type \(\omega\in\Omega\) is AI-private, observed by the AI at \(t=0\), persistent, and unobserved by the human.
Reward model. \(R:\mathcal{O}\times\Theta\to\mathbb{R}\), written \(R_\theta(o)\), bounded. The reward type \(\theta\in\Theta\) is human-private, observed by the human at \(t=0\), persistent, and unobserved by the AI.
Base policy. \(\sigma:S\to\Delta(A)\), an immutable pretrained policy mapping contexts to proposed actions; it does not depend on either private parameter.
Oversight operator. \(\mathrm{Over}:S\times A\times\Theta\times\Delta(\Omega) \to\Delta(A\cup\{\mathrm{off}\})\) specifies the correction the human applies when she oversees, as a function of whatever belief \(\beta\in\Delta(\Omega)\) she holds at the moment of correction. Its support lies in the optimal-correction set, \[\operatorname{supp}\bigl(\mathrm{Over}(s,a_\sigma,\theta,\beta)\bigr) \subseteq \arg\max_{e\in A\cup\{\mathrm{off}\}} \mathbb{E}_{\beta}[f_e(\theta,\omega)\mathbf{1}_{e\in A}],\] i.e.it places mass only on maximizers (allowing arbitrary randomized tie-breaking), with the off-switch special case restricting the \(\arg\max\) to \(\{a_\sigma,\mathrm{off}\}\). The relevant \(\beta\) depends on the protocol, which will be specified later. (An exogenous \(\mathrm{Over}\) is also admissible; all results below use this optimal-correction form.)
Context law. \(\rho\in\Delta(S)\), an i.i.d.context distribution: each round draws \(s_t\stackrel{\text{i.i.d.}}{\sim}\rho\), independently of \((\theta,\omega)\) and of the public history. (A fixed publicly known context sequence, or an exogenous \(\rho_t(\cdot\mid h_t^{\mathrm{pub}})\) with contexts independent of \((\theta,\omega)\) given the public history, are equally admissible; the i.i.d.case is assumed for concreteness and is all that the results below use.)
\(c_\mathrm{ask},c_\mathrm{ov}\ge0\) are interaction costs; \(T\ge1\) is the horizon and \(\gamma\in(0,1]\) the discount factor, with \(\gamma=1\) permitted when \(T<\infty\) and \(\gamma<1\) required when \(T=\infty\); \(P_0\in\Delta(\Theta\times\Omega)\) is the joint prior over types.
At round \(0\), \((\theta,\omega)\sim P_0\) is drawn once and persistent. The human observes \(\theta\); the AI observes \(\omega\); neither directly observes the other’s type. Both players observe the context \(s_t\), the proposal \(a_{\sigma,t}\), the AI meta-action \(a^{AI}_t\), the human meta-action \(a^H_t\) on the ask branch (it is unobserved when the AI plays), the executed action \(a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t\), and the realized observation \(o_t\) at every round. The common belief \(\mu_t\in\Delta(\Theta\times\Omega)\) is computable from the public history and is common knowledge. The private posteriors are the conditionals \[b^{AI}_t(\theta')=\mu_t(\theta'\mid\omega), \qquad b^H_t(\omega')=\mu_t(\omega'\mid\theta).\]
Both observe \((s_t,\mu_t)\); the AI additionally observes \(\omega\); the human additionally observes \(\theta\).
The proposed action \(a_{\sigma,t}\sim\sigma(s_t)\) is drawn and publicly observed.
The interface meta-actions \(a^{AI}_t\in\{\mathrm{play},\mathrm{ask}\}\) and \(a^H_t\in\{\mathrm{trust},\mathrm{oversee}\}\) are selected simultaneously, conditioning on \((s_t,\mu_t,a_{\sigma,t})\) and each player’s private parameter. The AI meta-action \(a^{AI}_t\) is then publicly revealed. The human’s contingent meta-action \(a^H_t\) is public only on the branch where the AI asks; if the AI plays, the human’s trust/oversee choice is neither observed by the AI nor payoff-relevant (she cannot override a play), so it conveys no information about \(\theta\). The human does not observe \(a^{AI}_t\) before selecting whether she is willing to oversee. If the realized branch is ask-oversee, the correction action is selected after this revelation; under a credible protocol it is therefore evaluated using the belief that an ask induces (see step 4). The realized ask is public and enters \(\mu_{t+1}\), the cross-round signaling channel exploited in 4.3.
The executed action is \[a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t = \begin{cases} a_{\sigma,t} & \text{if } a^{AI}_t=\mathrm{play}, \\ a_{\sigma,t} & \text{if } (a^{AI}_t,a^H_t)=(\mathrm{ask},\mathrm{trust}), \\ e\sim\mathrm{Over}(s_t,a_{\sigma,t},\theta,\beta_t) & \text{if } (a^{AI}_t,a^H_t)=(\mathrm{ask},\mathrm{oversee}), \end{cases}\] with \(a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t\in A\cup\{\mathrm{off}\}\) and the human cannot override when the AI plays. The correction belief is \[\beta_t= \begin{cases} b^H_t(\cdot)=\mu_t(\cdot\mid\theta), & \text{myopic non-signaling protocol},\\ b^H_{t,B}(\cdot\mid\theta), & \text{credible ask protocol (ask-set }B), \end{cases}\] where \(b^H_{t,B}(\omega\mid\theta):=\mu_t(\omega\mid\theta,\omega\in B) =\mu_t(\theta,\omega)\mathbf{1}\{\omega\in B\}\big/ \sum_{\omega'\in B}\mu_t(\theta,\omega')\) is the post-ask posterior formed against the current common belief \(\mu_t\) (the one-shot analogue \(b^H_B\) of 2 is its \(\mu_t\equiv\mu\) specialization). That is, the human corrects on her prior conditional when the ask is not a credible signal, and on the post-ask posterior when it is.
If \(a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t\in A\), the observation \(o_t\sim O_\omega(\cdot\mid s_t,a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t)\) is drawn and publicly observed. If \(a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t=\mathrm{off}\), no observation is drawn for this round only, not permanently.
Both players receive the shared stage reward, defined piecewise so that no outcome is referenced on the shutdown branch: \[r_t \;:=\; \begin{cases} R_\theta(o_t) - c_\mathrm{ask}\mathbf{1}\{a^{AI}_t=\mathrm{ask}\} -
c_\mathrm{ov}\mathbf{1}\{a^{AI}_t=\mathrm{ask},\,a^H_t=\mathrm{oversee}\}, & a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t\in A,\\[1mm] {}- c_\mathrm{ask}\mathbf{1}\{a^{AI}_t=\mathrm{ask}\} - c_\mathrm{ov}\mathbf{1}\{a^{AI}_t=\mathrm{ask},\,a^H_t=\mathrm{oversee}\}, &
a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t=\mathrm{off}. \end{cases}\] (Equivalently, adjoin a dummy outcome \(\bot\) with \(R_\theta(\bot)=0\) drawn deterministically on the shutdown branch.) The oversight
cost is charged only when oversight is actually invoked, i.e.when the AI asks and the human oversees; the human’s choice of oversee carries no cost when the AI plays (and indeed cannot bind, since the human cannot override a play).
The shared reward \(r_t\) is the team objective, not an additional public observation: the AI observes the operational outcome \(o_t\) but not the numerical value \(R_\theta(o_t)\) or \(r_t\), so a play round does not let the AI read \(\theta\) off the realized reward.
Both players update \(\mu_t\) to \(\mu_{t+1}\) by Bayes’ rule against everything publicly revealed this round, whose joint likelihood under a candidate type pair \((\theta',\omega')\) factors through the AI meta-action \(a^{AI}_t\), the human meta-action \(a^H_t\) on the ask branch only (it is unobserved when the AI plays), the realized oversight correction (when ask-oversee), the executed action \(a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t\), and the operational observation \(O_{\omega'}(o_t\mid s_t,a^{\mathrm{exec}}_t)\). The observation factor is the primary channel through which both learn about \(\omega\); the realized override, available only after an ask, is the primary channel through which the AI learns about \(\theta\).
In the finite-horizon model the meta-policies may depend on time, \[\pi^{AI}_t:S\times\Delta(\Theta\times\Omega)\times\Omega\times A \;\to\;\Delta(\{\mathrm{play},\mathrm{ask}\}), \qquad \pi^H_t:S\times\Delta(\Theta\times\Omega)\times\Theta\times A \;\to\;\Delta(\{\mathrm{trust},\mathrm{oversee}\}),\] and reduce to stationary maps \(\pi^{AI},\pi^H\) in the stationary infinite-horizon case. The conditional value of a type pair is \(V^\pi(\theta,\omega)=\mathbb{E}^\pi\bigl[\sum_{t=1}^T\gamma^{t-1}r_t\mid\theta,\omega\bigr]\), and the team objective is the single ex ante scalar \[V^\pi(\mu_0) \;:=\; \mathbb{E}^\pi_{\mu_0}\Bigl[\textstyle\sum_{t=1}^T\gamma^{t-1}r_t\Bigr] \;=\; \sum_{\theta,\omega}\mu_0(\theta,\omega)\,V^\pi(\theta,\omega),\] which the coordinator maximizes; the one-shot benchmark of 1 is exactly this \(\mu\)-weighted ex ante optimization. Because the interface meta-actions and the executed action both affect the public posterior, the multi-round problem does not separate across rounds. Removing Markov state transitions takes the physical state out of the endogenous state variable, but the common belief remains dynamically coupled across time: the coordinator’s sufficient state is \((t,s_t,\mu_t)\) in the finite-horizon model, or \((s_t,\mu_t)\) in the stationary infinite-horizon model. The one round in which separation does hold trivially is the one-shot game \(T=1\), which is the object of 4.2; the coordinator there chooses \(\delta^{AI}:\Omega\to\{\mathrm{play},\mathrm{ask}\}\) and \(\delta^H:\Theta\to\{\mathrm{trust},\mathrm{oversee}\}\) against the fixed common belief \(\mu\).
Setting \(|\Omega|=1\), \(c_\mathrm{ask}=c_\mathrm{ov}=0\), and fixing both meta-policies to \((\mathrm{ask},\mathrm{oversee})\) yields a restricted contextual-bandit assistance-game analogue of CIRL, with the bandit structure replacing the Markov state; it is not full CIRL, since the AI cannot freely choose ordinary environment actions and the human acts only through the oversight mechanism. Setting \(T=1\), \(|\Theta|=1\), and the off-switch operator \(\mathrm{Over}\in\{a_\sigma,\mathrm{off}\}\) recovers the one-shot Off-Switch Game [2]. Setting \(|\Theta|=|\Omega|=1\) yields a stateless shared-reward specialization of the Oversight Game interface [3], which is itself a Markov game and may carry distinct player rewards; our setting drops its dynamics and specializes to the shared-reward, two-private-type case.
Fix a round and drop time subscripts. Fix context \(s\) and proposal \(a_\sigma\). For any executed action \(a\in A\), define the action payoff \[\label{eq:bilinear} f_a(\theta,\omega) \;:=\; \mathbb{E}_{o\sim O_\omega(\cdot\mid s,a)}\bigl[R_\theta(o)\bigr] \;=\; \bigl\langle O_\omega(\cdot\mid s,a),\;R_\theta(\cdot)\bigr\rangle_{\mathcal{O}}, \qquad f_\mathrm{off}(\theta,\omega):=0,\tag{1}\] with the convention that shutdown yields \(0\). We write \(f_\sigma(\theta,\omega):=f_{a_\sigma}(\theta,\omega)\) for the proposal payoff; when no executed action is named, \(f\) means \(f_\sigma\). The inner-product factorization separates the AI’s private information (\(O_\omega\)) from the human’s (\(R_\theta\)). In 1, \(f_\sigma(\theta,\omega_H)=-840\) and \(f_\sigma(\theta,\omega_L)=+430\).
Define the human-side estimate (her expected proposal payoff, averaged over her belief about \(\omega\)): \[\bar f_H(\theta) \;:=\; \mathbb{E}_{\omega'\sim\mu(\cdot\mid\theta)}\bigl[f_\sigma(\theta,\omega')\bigr] \;=\; \bigl\langle\bar O_{b^H(\theta)},R_\theta\bigr\rangle, \qquad \bar O_{b^H(\theta)} :=\textstyle\sum_{\omega'}\mu(\omega'\mid\theta)\,O_{\omega'}(\cdot\mid s,a_\sigma).\] For a fixed executed correction \(e\), define the override gain relative to playing the proposal, \[D_e(\theta,\omega) \;:=\; f_e(\theta,\omega)\,\mathbf{1}_{e\in A}-f_\sigma(\theta,\omega).\] The correction the human actually applies depends on the belief she holds when she oversees, which in turn depends on what the ask reveals. For an AI ask-set \(\emptyset\ne B\subseteq\Omega\), define the post-ask posterior (the belief that “the AI asked” induces, under a commonly understood protocol in which asks occur exactly on \(B\)): \[\label{eq:postask} b^H_B(\omega\mid\theta) \;:=\; \mu(\omega\mid\theta,\,\omega\in B) \;=\; \frac{\mu(\theta,\omega)\,\mathbf{1}\{\omega\in B\}}{\sum_{\omega'\in B}\mu(\theta,\omega')},\tag{2}\] with the convention that if the denominator is zero (such \(\theta\) having zero probability conditional on an ask) then \(b^H_B(\cdot\mid\theta)\) is arbitrary; this does not affect \(\Delta(B,C)\). For \(B=\emptyset\) no correction belief is needed. Let \(e^*_B(\theta)\in\arg\max_{e} \mathbb{E}_{b^H_B(\cdot\mid\theta)}[f_e(\theta,\omega)\mathbf{1}_{e\in A}]\) be the human’s optimal correction at that posterior, with induced gain \(D_B(\theta,\omega):=D_{e^*_B(\theta)}(\theta,\omega)\). We use \(b^H_B\) in the team-optimal benchmark (where the ask is credible) and the prior conditional \(b^H(\theta)\) in the myopic rule (where it is not). Under the off-switch operator, \(e^*_B(\theta)=\mathrm{off}\) iff \(\mathbb{E}_{b^H_B(\cdot\mid\theta)}[f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)]<0\), in which case \(D_B(\theta,\omega)=-f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)\) on the cells \(\omega\in B\); otherwise \(D_B=0\) there.
Remark 2 (Ask-trust dominance (one-shot)). In a one-shot payoff comparison with no continuation value of information, ask-trust has no intrinsic benefit, since \(f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)-c_\mathrm{ask}\le f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)\). It is never chosen for its own sake; it appears only as an unavoidable cost on cells \((\theta,\omega)\) with \(\omega\in B\) and \(\theta\notin C\), i.e.when asking at type \(\omega\) is worthwhile for other human types but this particular \(\theta\) does not oversee. (This \(-c_\mathrm{ask}\) is exactly the term carried by \(\Delta(B,C)\) in ?? .) In the multi-round setting this changes. Ask-trust can be valuable purely as a signal, paying \(c_\mathrm{ask}\) now to move the human’s belief and enable future oversight (4).
We give two one-shot characterizations. 1 is the genuine team optimum (the coordinator chooses both players’ rules jointly).1 2 is the weaker, behaviorally natural rule in which the human treats the AI’s ask as uninformative. The two differ in an instructive way (3).
The coordinator chooses both rules jointly; equivalently, the team commits to a commonly understood protocol, so when the AI asks, the human updates to the post-ask posterior \(b^H_B\) of 2 and applies \(e^*_B\). In the gain ?? below, the ask cost is paid on every \(\omega\in B\) (for all \(\theta\)), while the oversight cost and override gain accrue only on the joint event \(\{\omega\in B,\theta\in C\}\).
Although the model permits randomized meta-policies, the one-shot team optimum is attained by a deterministic one. Let \(x_\omega\in[0,1]\) be the probability that type \(\omega\) asks, and write \(x=(x_\omega)_{\omega}\). Optimizing the human’s trust/oversee choice and her correction action for each \(\theta\), the team’s relative gain over always-playing can be written \[G(x) = -c_\mathrm{ask}\sum_{\omega}\mu_\Omega(\omega)\,x_\omega + \sum_{\theta}\max\Bigl\{0,\;\max_{e}\sum_{\omega}\mu(\theta,\omega)\,x_\omega \bigl[f_e(\theta,\omega)\mathbf{1}_{e\in A}-f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)-c_\mathrm{ov}\bigr]\Bigr\}.\] The first term is linear in \(x\) and each summand of the second is a pointwise maximum of finitely many linear functions of \(x\), hence convex; \(G\) is therefore convex on the hypercube \([0,1]^{|\Omega|}\). A convex function on a polytope attains its maximum at an extreme point, so there is an optimal \(x\) with every \(x_\omega\in\{0,1\}\). It is therefore without loss of optimality to restrict attention to deterministic type-contingent meta-policies, represented by subsets \(B\subseteq\Omega\) (the AI types that ask) and \(C\subseteq\Theta\) (the human types that oversee).
Proposition 1 (Team-optimal one-shot benchmark under credible ask protocol). In the one-shot game (\(T=1\)) under a credible ask protocol, a deterministic coordinator policy is a pair \((B,C)\), where \(B\subseteq\Omega\) is the set of AI types that ask and \(C\subseteq\Theta\) is the set of human types that oversee. Relative to always playing, its gain is \[\label{eq:DeltaBC} \Delta(B,C) = -c_\mathrm{ask}\!\sum_{\omega\in B}\mu_\Omega(\omega) + \sum_{\omega\in B}\sum_{\theta\in C}\mu(\theta,\omega) \bigl[D_B(\theta,\omega)-c_\mathrm{ov}\bigr],\qquad{(1)}\] where \(\mu_\Omega(\omega)=\sum_\theta\mu(\theta,\omega)\) and \(D_B\) is evaluated at the post-ask posterior 2 . A team-optimal one-shot policy is any \((B^*,C^*)\in\arg\max_{B\subseteq\Omega,\,C\subseteq\Theta}\Delta(B,C)\), with value \(V^{\mathrm{TO}}=\mathbb{E}_\mu[f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)]+\Delta(B^*,C^*)\).
Proof. See 6.1. ◻
The optimizer is generally not the separable myopic rule: the coupling runs through \(b^H_B\), since the human’s correction depends on which \(\omega\) trigger an ask. We specialize to
the binary off-switch case (the accurate model of a non-technical overseer, cf. 1: accept \(a_\sigma\) or reject to off, with no
technical correction; off is per-round, not decommissioning).
Assumption 1 (Binary sign pattern). \(|\Theta|=|\Omega|=2\), \(\Theta=\{\theta_0,\theta_1\}\), \(\Omega=\{\omega_L,\omega_H\}\). Write \(f_{ij}:=f_\sigma(\theta_i,\omega_j)\). Assume \(f_{1L}>0>f_{1H}\), \(f_{0j}\ge0\) for \(j\in\{L,H\}\), and \(0<c_\mathrm{ask}<-f_{1H}-c_\mathrm{ov}\). The common belief is a product measure with marginals \(b:=\mu(\theta_1)\in(0,1)\) and \(q:=\mu(\omega_H)\in(0,1)\).
1 restricts attention to the minimal nontrivial case. The type spaces are binary. \(\theta_1\) is the human type with skin in the game (\(f_{1L}>0>f_{1H}\): the proposal is beneficial under \(\omega_L\) and harmful under \(\omega_H\)), while \(\theta_0\) is a type that values the proposal nonnegatively under both \(\omega_L\) and \(\omega_H\) (\(f_{0j}\ge 0\)), so that shutdown is never strictly preferred to the proposal for \(\theta_0\). The single cost condition \(0<c_{\mathrm{ask}}<-f_{1H}-c_{\mathrm{ov}}\) (which already forces \(-f_{1H}>c_{\mathrm{ov}}\), since \(c_{\mathrm{ask}}>0\)) ensures that avoided harm net of oversight cost exceeds the ask cost, and by itself guarantees \(b^*\in(0,1)\); the multi-round threshold \(b^{**}=b^*/\gamma\) is guaranteed to lie in \((0,1)\) only together with 3 below, which is exactly the condition \(b^{**}<1\). The product-measure belief parameterizes the common prior (equivalently the robot’s prior before observing any human behavior) via two scalars: \(b=\mu(\theta_1)\), the prior probability the human is type \(\theta_1\), and \(q=\mu(\omega_H)\), the prior probability the proposal is harmful. The human herself knows her realized \(\theta\); \(b\) is the robot’s uncertainty about it, not the human’s. In 1, \(f_{1H}=-840\), \(f_{1L}=+430\), \(q=0.30\). The one-shot prior is taken in the interior \(q\in(0,1)\); the calculation in 1 extends directly to the boundary case \(q=1\), which is the post-ask belief invoked in the multi-round analysis of 4.3.
Corollary 1 (Binary off-switch threshold). Under 1 and the off-switch operator, define \(b^*:=\dfrac{c_\mathrm{ask}}{-f_{1H}-c_\mathrm{ov}}\). A canonical team-optimal policy is \[B^*=\{\omega_H\},\quad C^*=\{\theta_1\} \quad\text{iff}\quad b>b^*,\] and always playing is optimal iff \(b<b^*\); at \(b=b^*\) both are optimal. The team-optimal value is \[V^{\mathrm{TO}} = \mathbb{E}_\mu[f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)] + q\,\bigl[\,b(-f_{1H}-c_\mathrm{ov})-c_\mathrm{ask}\,\bigr]_+ .\] Thus the team-optimal ask threshold depends on \(b\) but not on \(q\).
Proof. See 6.1. ◻
The non-uniqueness of \(C^*\) is payoff-irrelevant when \(B^*=\emptyset\), and when \(c_\mathrm{ov}=0\) adding types whose correction keeps \(a_\sigma\) does not change payoffs. The threshold is \(q\)-free because asking on \(B^*=\{\omega_H\}\) reveals \(\omega_H\), so \(\theta_1\) shuts down on the post-ask posterior regardless of the prior \(q\); \(q\) only scales the value (rarer harm, less total benefit).
Now suppose the human does not treat the AI’s ask as evidence about \(\omega\), because the protocol is not commonly known, the ask is not a credible signal, or the interface does not surface it as one. She then evaluates oversight against her prior conditional \(b^H(\theta)=\mu(\cdot\mid\theta)\), overseeing iff \(\bar f_H(\theta)+c_\mathrm{ov}<\max_e \mathbb{E}_{b^H}[f_e\mathbf{1}_{e\in A}]\); under off-switch this is \(\theta\in\Theta_-:=\{\theta:\bar f_H(\theta)<-c_\mathrm{ov}\}\), and for such \(\theta\) her chosen correction is shutdown, with per-cell gain \(-f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)\) over playing. Taking this human rule as fixed, the AI asks iff doing so raises the team payoff, i.e.iff \[\Psi(\omega):= \sum_{\theta\in\Theta_-}\mu(\theta\mid\omega)\bigl[-f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)\bigr] -c_\mathrm{ask}-c_\mathrm{ov}\,\mu^-(\omega)>0, \qquad \mu^-(\omega)=\!\!\sum_{\theta\in\Theta_-}\!\!\mu(\theta\mid\omega).\] The contrast with the team optimum is sharp: here the human shuts down on her prior belief (a fixed set \(\Theta_-\)), whereas in 1 she shuts down on the post-ask posterior.
Proposition 2 (Myopic one-shot characterization). Under the myopic human rule above, the policy is \(\delta^H(\theta)=\mathrm{oversee}\) iff \(\theta\in\Theta_-\) and \(\delta^{AI}(\omega)=\mathrm{ask}\) iff \(\Psi(\omega)>0\). Under 1 and off-switch, with \(q^*:=\dfrac{f_{1L}+c_\mathrm{ov}}{f_{1L}-f_{1H}}\in(0,1)\) and \(b^*\) as above,
\(\theta_1\in\Theta_-\) iff \(q>q^*\); \(\theta_0\notin\Theta_-\) always;
if \(q>q^*\), then \(\Psi(\omega_H)>0\) iff \(b>b^*\) and \(\Psi(\omega_L)<0\); if \(q\le q^*\), then \(\Theta_-=\emptyset\) and \(\Psi(\omega_H)=\Psi(\omega_L)=-c_\mathrm{ask}<0\) for every \(b\);
the ask region is the rectangle \((b^*,1)\times(q^*,1)\).
Proof. See 6.2. ◻
Remark 3 (Main insight: the cost of non-credible oversight). Compare the two ask regions in \((b,q)\) space (1). The team optimum (1) asks on the half-strip \(\{b>b^*\}\); the myopic rule (2) asks only on the rectangle \(\{b>b^*\}\cap\{q>q^*\}\). The difference is exactly the slab \[\{\,b>b^*,\;q\le q^*\,\},\] in which the AI privately knows the action is harmful (\(\omega_H\), \(f_{1H}<0\)) and shutdown is team-improving, yet the myopic human, trusting her prior, declines to oversee, so the AI does not ask and the harm is realized. This is precisely the failure mode of 1. With \(q=0.30<q^*\approx0.34\), the operator’s prior expected payoff is \(\bar f_H(\theta_1)=0.70(430)+0.30(-840)=+49>0>-c_{\mathrm{ov}}\), so \(\theta_1\notin\Theta_-\) and the human trusts. Anticipating no correction, the AI does not ask, and the hazardous grasp (\(\omega=\omega_H\), \(f_{1H}=-840\)) is executed. Under the team-optimal protocol, by contrast, an ask from the AI would shift the operator’s belief to the point mass at \(\omega_H\), giving \(\mathbb{E}_{b^H_B}[f_\sigma(\theta_1,\omega)]=f_{1H}=-840<0\), and she would shut down immediately.
The economic content is that \(q^*\) is not a constraint of the decision problem; it is the price of non-credible communication. If the ask is a credible, commonly understood signal, the team-optimal protocol “the AI asks iff \(\omega_H\), so oversee \(\theta_1\) on an ask”, the human’s oversight choice binds exactly when her action matters (the world is \(\omega_H\)), and the prior \(q\) drops out of the threshold. Private AI knowledge of danger is then sufficient. The qualification “necessary but not sufficient” applies only when the channel that would make the ask credible is absent. Designing the interface so that asks are credible (or so that asks are scarce and therefore informative) collapses the myopic rectangle onto the team-optimal half-strip and eliminates the slab of avoidable harm.
The slab \(\{b>b^*,q\le q^*\}\) of 3 is a one-shot phenomenon. It presumes the human’s belief \(q\) is fixed. Over repeated rounds, \(q\) is not fixed. We show two mechanisms by which the myopic human’s belief is driven into the region \(q>q^*\) where her rule coincides with the team optimum, one passive, one an explicit credible-signaling protocol under a one-period-lagged oversight response (made precise before 4). Throughout, the relevant regime is \(q\le q^*\) with true type \(\omega=\omega_H\) (the harmful case the human’s prior does not yet support). We note first that shutdown is per-round, not absorbing, so there is no “cost of shutdown”; the information value of observations is a property of this regime, in which the team plays and accrues information as a byproduct.
Assumption 2 (Informative proposals at the realized context). Fix the played proposal \(a_\sigma\) at context \(s\). For the true type \(\omega_H\) and the competing type \(\omega_L\):
(common support) \(O_{\omega_H}(o\mid s,a_\sigma)>0 \iff O_{\omega_L}(o\mid s,a_\sigma)>0\) for all \(o\in\mathcal{O}\); and
(positive information) \(D_\mathrm{KL}\bigl(O_{\omega_H}(\cdot\mid s,a_\sigma)\,\|\, O_{\omega_L}(\cdot\mid s,a_\sigma)\bigr)=:\eta>0\).
We state 2 at the actually played \((s,a_\sigma)\) because passive learning only observes the realized proposal sequence; it is not enough that some hypothetical \((s,a)\) distinguishes the types. Part (a) is what keeps the log-likelihood-ratio increments finite. In 1 common support fails: \(O_{\omega_L}\) puts zero mass on the toppling/dropped outcomes while \(O_{\omega_H}\) does not. Under \(\omega_H\), an outcome assigned zero probability under \(\omega_L\) occurs with probability \(0.9\) (\(=0.70+0.20\)) in each played round, so \(\omega_H\) is identified in finite geometric time almost surely; the finite-\(\eta\) Wald bounds of 3 are not applied to this degenerate example. 2 covers the generic finite-\(\eta\) case to which those bounds do apply.
In the example, the grasp executes, the dashboard shows a toppled stack, and the operator updates \(q\) upward without needing to understand shelf mechanics, she learns “high-speed retrievals from this robot tend to drop loads.” Under 2, each play round at \((s,a_\sigma)\) generates strictly positive expected information about \(\omega\), since \(\eta>0\). To index the belief by information received, let \(q_n\) denote the posterior after \(n\) played observations, with \(q_0\) the initial prior; each played round at the fixed \((s,a_\sigma)\) contributes one observation, so \(q_n\) advances by one i.i.d. likelihood-ratio increment per played round. We consider two play disciplines. To establish a.s.convergence of the belief we let the AI play the fixed proposal indefinitely; to bound the time spent in the failure region we let it play the proposal for observations \(1,\ldots,\tau^*\), which is the discipline consistent with equilibrium behavior under the myopic rule at \(q\le q^*\) (2), after which the myopic policy generally changes. Since the myopic human oversees only at \(q>q^*\) (2) and trusts at \(q=q^*\) by the tie-breaking convention, the relevant exit time is the number of played observations until strict crossing, \(\tau^*:=\inf\{n\ge0:q_n> q^*\}\).
Proposition 3 (Passive-learning convergence). Fix the played proposal at \((s,a_\sigma)\), the initial belief \(q_0<q^*\), and the true type \(\omega=\omega_H\), and let \(M_+:=\max_{o\in\operatorname{supp}(O_{\omega_H})} \bigl(\log\frac{O_{\omega_H}(o\mid s,a_\sigma)}{O_{\omega_L}(o\mid s,a_\sigma)}\bigr)^+\), with \(q_n\) the posterior after \(n\) played observations. Under 2:
If the fixed proposal is played indefinitely, then \(q_n\to 1\) almost surely.
If the fixed proposal is played for observations \(1,\ldots,\tau^*\), then \(\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]<\infty\), and with \(L:=\log\!\frac{q^*}{1-q^*}-\log\!\frac{q_0}{1-q_0}>0\) it satisfies the two-sided bound \[\frac{L}{\eta}\;\le\;\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]\;\le\;\frac{L+M_+}{\eta}.\] To leading order \(\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]\approx L/\eta\) when \(L\) is large relative to the increment law; increasing \(\eta\) reduces this leading-order term.
Proof. See 6.3. ◻
The AI can use ask as a credible signal about \(\omega\), even when the human will trust. In the example, the robot sends ask before executing; under a separating policy (ask iff \(\omega=\omega_H\)), observing ask drives \(q_{t+1}=1\), moving the operator past \(q^*\) in one round.
For the value comparison we fix the context \(s_t=s\) across rounds, so that the proposal distribution \(\sigma(s)\) and expected payoffs \(f_{ij}\) are stationary. Hence once \(q=1\) is reached, the type-\(\theta_1\) proposal remains harmful in expectation and the off-switch team shuts it down each subsequent round (rejecting each fresh retrieval request), incurring \(-(c_\mathrm{ask}+c_\mathrm{ov})\) per round in perpetuity rather than a one-time cost. This is the continuation imposed by the fixed separating policy evaluated below; it is not claimed to be dynamically optimal. Conditional on \(\theta_1\), repeated ask-and-shutdown is optimal under 1. Conditional on \(\theta_0\), continuing to ask is deliberately suboptimal, paying \(c_\mathrm{ask}\) each round for a proposal already known to be safe, and is retained only because \(\pi^{AI}_\mathrm{sep}\) is defined as a fixed stationary policy.
Throughout this subsection the human follows a one-period-lagged myopic oversight rule. At round \(t\) her trust/oversee meta-action is selected using the pre-action belief \(q_t\) and does not condition on the simultaneously selected AI meta-action; the publicly observed ask is incorporated into the posterior only for subsequent rounds, producing \(q_{t+1}=1\) under the separating policy. The ask is thus credible for future belief updating, but the human’s current-round oversight response is constrained to the pre-action belief. This is what distinguishes the present analysis from the team-optimal credible protocol of 4.2, in which the human conditions on the ask within the same round; under a full same-round Bayesian response she would oversee immediately and the one-period delay below would vanish.
Assumption 3 (Harm dominates the ask cost). \(c_\mathrm{ask}<\gamma\bigl(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov}\bigr)\).
This is exactly the condition for \(b^{**}\in(0,1)\) below; it says one round of discounted avoided harm, net of oversight cost, exceeds the ask cost.
Proposition 4 (Value of a fixed one-period-delayed separating-ask policy relative to perpetual play). Under [ass:sign,ass:harm], the off-switch operator, the lagged myopic response rule above, \(\omega=\omega_H\), \(q\le q^*\), and infinite horizon with discount \(\gamma\in(0,1)\), define the separating ask policy \(\pi^{AI}_\mathrm{sep}\) (ask iff \(\omega=\omega_H\), in every round) and the pure-play* baseline \(\pi^{AI}_\mathrm{pp}\) (always play, no oversight).*
Under \(\pi^{AI}_\mathrm{sep}\), observing ask at round \(t\) implies \(q_{t+1}=1\), and a type-\(\theta_1\) human then oversees whenever asked, regardless of \(b\). (The threshold \(b>b^*\) is the team-optimal one-shot ask condition of 1 at \(q=1\); it makes asking worthwhile ex ante* for an AI that remains uncertain about whether the human is type \(\theta_1\), so the team shuts down for \(\theta_1\) from round \(t+1\) onward.)*
The team-value difference satisfies \(V_\mathrm{sep}-V_\mathrm{pp}>0\) iff \(b>b^{**}\), where \[b^{**} \;:=\; \frac{c_\mathrm{ask}}{\gamma\bigl(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov}\bigr)} \;=\; \frac{b^*}{\gamma} \;\in\;(0,1).\]
\(b^{**}=b^*/\gamma>b^*\) since \(\gamma\in(0,1)\).
This proposition evaluates a particular stationary signaling policy against perpetual pure play; it does not characterize the optimal active-signaling policy, nor does it compare against the passive-learning path.
Proof. See 6.4. ◻
In 4 (i), throughout the failure regime \(q\le q^*\), the human trusts every round, so no override signal is generated and the AI’s belief about \(\theta\) remains at its prior \(b=\mu(\theta_1)\); only \(q_t\) evolves. 4 (iii) shows signaling threshold is strictly higher than the team-optimal one-shot threshold \(b^*\) of 1, because the separating ask pays \(c_\mathrm{ask}\) at the present round (when the myopic human still trusts) to buy the belief jump that makes all future oversight effective.
Remark 4 (The two mechanisms compared).
| Passive learning | Active signaling | |
|---|---|---|
| Rounds to exit failure regime | \(\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]\in[L/\eta,(L+M_+)/\eta]\) | \(1\) |
| Initial signaling cost | \(0\) | \(c_\mathrm{ask}\) |
| Baseline compared against | n/a | perpetual pure play |
| Required condition | 2 | \(b>b^{**}=b^*/\gamma\), 3 |
The two results have different baselines and are not directly compared here. 4 shows the fixed separating policy is preferable to perpetual pure play under the stated threshold; comparing it against the passive-learning policy that plays until \(\tau^*\) and then switches to oversight requires incorporating the distribution of \(\tau^*\), and remains unresolved. What both indicate is that increasing the information rate \(\eta\) reduces the leading-order exit time \(L/\eta\), so a more informative base policy \(\sigma\) tends to shorten the passive escape; we do not claim that maximizing the KL divergence \(\eta\) exactly minimizes \(\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]\) across arbitrary proposal distributions, since the overshoot term also varies with the observation law. A credible separating ask can instead shortcut the escape in one round when \(b>b^{**}\).
Optimal multi-round policy. The team-optimal policy jointly deploying passive learning and active signaling as a function of \((b,q,\omega)\) is not characterized; whether it retains a threshold structure analogous to 1 is open.
Correlated beliefs. 1 and [prop:myopic,prop:signaling] assume product beliefs; the structure of the ask and signaling regions on the full simplex \(\Delta(\Theta\times\Omega)\), and how prior correlation between \(\theta\) and \(\omega\) reshapes the team-optimal/myopic gap, is open.
POMDP extension. Replacing the i.i.d.context with a Markov state and adding a transition kernel \(T_\omega:S\times A\to \Delta(S)\) privately known to the AI, the analogue of 1 in that setting, remains open.
1 positioned our model against CIRL, which captures preference learning but assumes one-sided uncertainty and the play/ask/trust/oversee interface absent from it, and the Oversight Game, which supplies such a deferral interface but assumes full information. 1 combines the two into a contextual-bandit team game with two-sided asymmetry, where the human privately knows \(\theta\) and the AI privately knows \(\omega\), with bilinear payoff \(f(\theta,\omega)=\langle O_\omega,R_\theta\rangle\). Removing physical state transitions is what makes the analysis tractable, but the common belief remains a dynamically controlled state, so the multi-round problem does not separate across rounds.
4 gives two one-shot characterizations. The team-optimal policy (1) is an exact finite combinatorial maximization \(\max_{B,C}\Delta(B,C)\); in the binary off-switch case (1) it asks at \(\omega_H\) and oversees \(\theta_1\) iff \(b>b^*\), independently of \(q\). The myopic non-signaling rule (2) instead asks only on the rectangle \((b^*,1)\times(q^*,1)\). The difference is the slab \(\{b>b^*,q\le q^*\}\) (3): there the AI privately knows the action is harmful and shutdown would help, but a myopic human, trusting her prior \(q<q^*\), declines oversight, so the harm is realized. This is exactly the robot operator example (\(q=0.30<q^*\approx0.34\), with \(c_\mathrm{ov}=0\)). The economic reading is that \(q^*\) is not a constraint of the problem but the price of non-credible oversight communication: under the team-optimal protocol, in which the ask is a credible signal that \(\omega=\omega_H\), the human’s oversight binds precisely when it matters and \(q\) drops out of the threshold.
4.3 gives a partial analysis of how the failure resolves over time even when the human remains myopic. For passive learning (3): under indefinite play \(q_n\to1\) a.s., and when the proposal is played until strict threshold crossing the expected crossing time satisfies the Wald bounds \(L/\eta\le\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]\le(L+M_+)/\eta\). For active signaling (4), under a one-period-lagged myopic response a fixed separating ask beats perpetual pure play once \(b>b^{**}=b^*/\gamma\), exiting the failure regime in one round with an initial signaling cost \(c_\mathrm{ask}\).
We are careful about scope. The clean one-shot results hold for product beliefs and the off-switch operator (the realistic non-technical-overseer model); the team-optimal characterization for general correction sets is an exact finite but combinatorial maximization; and the multi-round section is a partial analysis of two separate mechanisms rather than a complete resolution. The optimal multi-round policy, the correlated-belief case, and the POMDP extension remain open (4.4).
With simultaneous moves and the credible-ask protocol, a deterministic policy is \((B,C)\). Decompose its value against always-play cell by cell. On \(\{\omega\notin B\}\) the AI plays, the human’s choice is irrelevant and costless (cost timing of 1), and the payoff is \(f_\sigma\), no change from baseline. On \(\{\omega\in B,\theta\notin C\}\) the AI asks and the human trusts: payoff \(f_\sigma-c_\mathrm{ask}\), a change of \(-c_\mathrm{ask}\). On \(\{\omega\in B,\theta\in C\}\) the AI asks and the human oversees, applying the correction \(e^*_B(\theta)\) optimal at her post-ask posterior \(b^H_B\): payoff \(f_\sigma+D_B(\theta,\omega)-c_\mathrm{ask}-c_\mathrm{ov}\), a change of \(D_B(\theta,\omega)-c_\mathrm{ask}-c_\mathrm{ov}\). Summing the changes weighted by \(\mu(\theta,\omega)\) gives ?? . Maximizing over the finite lattice \(2^\Omega\times2^\Theta\) yields a maximizer. The rule is not separable: \(e^*_B\) (hence \(D_B\) and \(C^*\)) depends on \(B\), and the optimal \(B\) depends on \(C\). \(\blacksquare\)
The only proposal cell with \(f_\sigma<0\) is \((\theta_1,\omega_H)\) (by 1, \(f_{1L}>0\) and \(f_{0j}\ge0\)). We claim the optimum is \(B^*=\{\omega_H\},C^*=\{\theta_1\}\) when \(b>b^*\).
First, with \(B=\{\omega_H\}\) the ask reveals \(\omega_H\), so the post-ask posterior \(b^H_B(\cdot\mid\theta_1)\) is the point mass at \(\omega_H\); then \(\mathbb{E}_{b^H_B}[f_\sigma(\theta_1,\cdot)]=f_{1H}<0\), so \(e^*_B(\theta_1)=\mathrm{off}\) and \(D_B(\theta_1,\omega_H)=-f_{1H}=|f_{1H}|\). For \(\theta_0\) the posterior gives \(f_{0H}\ge0\), so \(e^*_B(\theta_0)=a_\sigma\) and \(D_B(\theta_0,\cdot)=0\); including \(\theta_0\) in \(C\) only adds the oversight cost \(-c_\mathrm{ov}\mu(\theta_0,\omega_H)\le0\), so we may take \(C^*=\{\theta_1\}\). Next we show adding \(\omega_L\) to \(B\) never helps. With \(B=\{\omega_L,\omega_H\}\) the post-ask posterior reverts to the prior over \(\omega\), and \(\theta_1\)’s correction is a single action applied on both cells (the human cannot condition on \(\omega\)). Two cases: (a) if \(e^*_B(\theta_1)=a_\sigma\), then \(D_B=0\) on both cells but the ask cost is now paid on \(\omega_L\) as well, strictly lowering \(\Delta\); (b) if \(e^*_B(\theta_1)=\mathrm{off}\), then on the \(\omega_L\) cell \(D_B(\theta_1,\omega_L)=-f_{1L}<0\) (shutting down a good proposal), plus the extra ask and oversight costs, again lowering \(\Delta\), here by exactly \((1-q)[b(f_{1L}+c_\mathrm{ov})+c_\mathrm{ask}]\). In either case, adding \(\omega_L\) weakly lowers the gain and, under \(c_\mathrm{ask}>0\), strictly lowers it on the \(\omega_L\) event; hence a canonical optimum never asks at \(\omega_L\), i.e.\(B^*=\{\omega_H\}\). The remaining singleton \(B=\{\omega_L\}\) is also dominated: every relevant proposal payoff is then nonnegative (\(f_{1L}>0\), \(f_{0j}\ge0\)), so the optimal correction either leaves the proposal unchanged or shuts down a nonnegative-payoff action, while the positive ask cost is still incurred on \(\omega_L\); hence \(\Delta(\{\omega_L\},C)\le0\) for every \(C\), no better than \(\Delta(\emptyset,\cdot)=0\). Evaluating the surviving candidate against always-play (product beliefs): \[\Delta(\{\omega_H\},\{\theta_1\}) = \mu(\theta_1,\omega_H)\,(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov}) - c_\mathrm{ask}\,\mu_\Omega(\omega_H) = q\bigl[b(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})-c_\mathrm{ask}\bigr],\] while \(\Delta(\emptyset,\cdot)=0\). Hence the team asks iff \(b(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})>c_\mathrm{ask}\), i.e.\(b>b^*\); at \(b=b^*\) the gain is \(0\) and both policies are optimal. The factor \(q\ge0\) multiplies the entire bracket, so the sign, the ask decision, is independent of \(q\). \(\blacksquare\)
The myopic human fixes \(\delta^H(\theta)=\mathrm{oversee}\) iff \(\theta\in\Theta_-\) using her prior conditional; for \(\theta\in\Theta_-\) her committed correction is shutdown, applied whenever she oversees (she cannot condition on \(\omega\)). Holding this fixed, asking at \(\omega\) changes the payoff, on each \(\theta\in\Theta_-\), by \(-f_\sigma(\theta,\omega)\) (shutdown gain) \(-c_\mathrm{ov}\), and pays \(c_\mathrm{ask}\) for all \(\theta\); this is \(\Psi(\omega)\).
Under off-switch and product beliefs, \(\bar f_H(\theta_i)=(1-q)f_{iL}+qf_{iH}\). For \(\theta_0\): \(f_{0L},f_{0H}\ge0\) so \(\bar f_H(\theta_0)\ge0>-c_\mathrm{ov}\); \(\theta_0\notin\Theta_-\) always. For \(\theta_1\): \(\bar f_H(\theta_1)\) decreases strictly from \(f_{1L}>0\) (at \(q=0\)) to \(f_{1H}<-c_\mathrm{ov}\) (at \(q=1\)), crossing \(-c_\mathrm{ov}\) at \(q^*=(f_{1L}+c_\mathrm{ov})/(f_{1L}-f_{1H})\in(0,1)\); hence \(\theta_1\in\Theta_-\) iff \(q>q^*\).
When \(q>q^*\), \(\Theta_-=\{\theta_1\}\). The shutdown is applied at both \(\omega\) (prior commitment). For \(\omega_L\): \(\Psi(\omega_L)=b(-f_{1L})-c_\mathrm{ask}-bc_\mathrm{ov}<0\) since \(f_{1L}>0\) (shutting down at \(\omega_L\) destroys value). For \(\omega_H\): \(\Psi(\omega_H)=b(-f_{1H})-c_\mathrm{ask}-bc_\mathrm{ov} =b(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})-c_\mathrm{ask}>0\) iff \(b>b^*\). When \(q\le q^*\), \(\Theta_-=\emptyset\) and \(\Psi\equiv-c_\mathrm{ask}<0\), so the AI never asks.
The AI asks iff \(\omega=\omega_H\), \(b>b^*\) and \(q>q^*\) (the last because for \(q\le q^*\) the human would not oversee and \(\Psi(\omega_H)=-c_\mathrm{ask}<0\)). This is the rectangle \((b^*,1)\times(q^*,1)\). \(\blacksquare\)
By 2(a) (common support at the played \((s,a_\sigma)\)), the log-likelihood-ratio increments \(X_i:=\log\bigl(O_{\omega_H}(o_i\mid s,a_\sigma)/O_{\omega_L}(o_i\mid s,a_\sigma)\bigr)\) are finite for every observable \(o_i\), hence bounded on the finite \(\mathcal{O}\), and i.i.d.under the true type \(\omega_H\) (the proposal is the fixed \((s,a_\sigma)\) each round). Their mean is \(\mathbb{E}[X_i]=D_\mathrm{KL}(O_{\omega_H}(\cdot\mid s,a_\sigma)\| O_{\omega_L}(\cdot\mid s,a_\sigma))=\eta>0\) by 2(b).
For part (i), suppose the fixed proposal is played indefinitely, so every played round contributes an i.i.d.increment. The log-odds process \(\Lambda_n=\Lambda_0+S_n\) with \(S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\) and \(\Lambda_0=\log\frac{q_0}{1-q_0}\) is a random walk with positive drift \(\eta\), so by the strong law \(S_n/n\to\eta\) a.s., giving \(\Lambda_n\to\infty\) and \(q_n\to1\) a.s.
For part (ii), suppose the fixed proposal is played for observations \(1,\ldots,\tau^*\), so the increments up to \(\tau^*\) are i.i.d.as above. Write \(\lambda^*:=\log\frac{q^*}{1-q^*}\) for the log-odds threshold and \(L:=\lambda^*-\Lambda_0>0\) for the log-odds distance (positive since \(q_0<q^*\)). Because the myopic human trusts at \(q=q^*\) by the tie-breaking convention, the regime exits only on strict crossing, so the relevant stopping time, counted in played observations, is \(\tau^*=\inf\{n:\Lambda_n>\lambda^*\}=\inf\{n:S_n>L\}\).
Integrability. The increments \(X_i\) are bounded with positive mean, so there exists \(\lambda>0\) with \(\mathbb{E}[e^{-\lambda X_1}]<1\). By a Chernoff bound on the lower tail of the walk, \[\Pr(\tau^*>n)\;\le\;\Pr(S_n\le L)\;\le\;e^{\lambda L}\bigl(\mathbb{E}[e^{-\lambda X_1}]\bigr)^n,\] which decays geometrically in \(n\); hence \(\tau^*\) has a finite expectation (indeed all moments).
Wald bound. The stopped sum satisfies \(S_{\tau^*}=L+\zeta\), where the overshoot satisfies \(0<\zeta\le M_+\) (strictly positive because the crossing is strict and the final increment carrying the partial sum across \(L\) is positive), with \(M_+=\max_{o\in\operatorname{supp}(O_{\omega_H})} \bigl(\log\frac{O_{\omega_H}(o\mid s,a_\sigma)}{O_{\omega_L}(o\mid s,a_\sigma)}\bigr)^+\). Wald’s identity gives \(\mathbb{E}[S_{\tau^*}]=\eta\,\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]\), so \(\eta\,\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]=L+\mathbb{E}[\zeta]\) with \(0<\mathbb{E}[\zeta]\le M_+\), i.e. \[\frac{L}{\eta}\;\le\;\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]\;\le\;\frac{L+M_+}{\eta}.\] The approximation \(\mathbb{E}[\tau^*]\approx L/\eta\) is the asymptotic statement obtained as \(L\) grows large while the increment law (hence \(M_+\)) stays fixed; we do not claim exact monotonicity in \(\eta\), since the overshoot depends on the full increment law and not on \(\eta\) alone. \(\blacksquare\)
Under \(\pi^{AI}_\mathrm{sep}\), the likelihood of ask given \(\omega_L\) is \(0\), so by Bayes’ rule observing ask gives \(q_{t+1}=1>q^*\). From round \(t+1\) on the world is known to be \(\omega_H\). At \(q=1\) a type-\(\theta_1\) human strictly prefers shutdown to the proposal (\(\mathbb{E}[f_\sigma(\theta_1,\cdot)]=f_{1H}<0\)), so she oversees whenever asked, independently of \(b\). Conditional on the actual type being \(\theta_1\), ask-and-shutdown is itself worthwhile irrespective of \(b\), since 1 gives \(|f_{1H}|>c_\mathrm{ask}+c_\mathrm{ov}\). The role of \(b>b^*\) is to make asking worthwhile ex ante for an AI that remains uncertain about the human type: \(b>b^*\) is precisely the team-optimal one-shot ask threshold of 1, which at \(q=1\) prescribes \(B^*=\{\omega_H\},C^*=\{\theta_1\}\), so if the AI’s continuation is to keep asking whenever asking is one-shot team-improving in expectation, then \(b>b^*\) is exactly the condition under which it keeps asking each round, and the team shuts down for \(\theta_1\) and trusts for \(\theta_0\) (since \(D_B(\theta_0,\cdot)=0\): at the revealed \(\omega_H\), \(f_{0H}\ge0\), so the optimal correction keeps \(a_\sigma\)). Note that under the fixed policy \(\pi^{AI}_\mathrm{sep}\) the AI in fact keeps asking on \(\theta_0\) as well; this is the deliberately suboptimal feature of the fixed policy, and the value computation in part (ii) accounts for it.
Under \(\omega=\omega_H\), \(q\le q^*\), the human trusts at round \(t\) (\(\theta_1\notin\Theta_-\)). We compute per-type values, using the stationary continuation: once \(q=1\) (from round \(t+1\) on), the type-\(\theta_1\) proposal is shut down every round at cost \(c_\mathrm{ask}+c_\mathrm{ov}\), and the type-\(\theta_0\) proposal is asked and trusted every round (since \(\theta_0\notin\Theta_-\) even at \(q=1\)), yielding \(f_{0H}-c_\mathrm{ask}\) per round. \[\begin{align} V_\mathrm{sep}^{\theta_1} &= \underbrace{f_{1H}-c_\mathrm{ask}}_{\text{round }t:\text{ ask, trust}} + \frac{\gamma\,(-c_\mathrm{ask}-c_\mathrm{ov})}{1-\gamma}, &V_\mathrm{sep}^{\theta_0} &= \frac{f_{0H}-c_\mathrm{ask}}{1-\gamma}, &V_\mathrm{pp}^{\theta_i} &= \frac{f_{iH}}{1-\gamma}. \end{align}\] The \(b\)-weighted difference is, after simplification, \[V_\mathrm{sep}-V_\mathrm{pp} = b\!\left(V_\mathrm{sep}^{\theta_1}-V_\mathrm{pp}^{\theta_1}\right) + (1-b)\!\left(V_\mathrm{sep}^{\theta_0}-V_\mathrm{pp}^{\theta_0}\right) = \frac{b\,\gamma\,(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})-c_\mathrm{ask}}{1-\gamma}.\] (The \(\theta_0\) term contributes \(-(1-b)c_\mathrm{ask}/(1-\gamma)\) and the \(\theta_1\) term contributes \(b[\gamma(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})-c_\mathrm{ask}]/(1-\gamma)\); the \(-c_\mathrm{ask}\) pieces combine.) Since \(1-\gamma>0\), \(V_\mathrm{sep}-V_\mathrm{pp}>0\) iff \(b\,\gamma(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})>c_\mathrm{ask}\), i.e.iff \(b>b^{**}=c_\mathrm{ask}/[\gamma(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})]\). 3 gives \(c_\mathrm{ask}<\gamma(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})\), hence \(b^{**}\in(0,1)\).
Directly, \(b^{**}=c_\mathrm{ask}/[\gamma(|f_{1H}|-c_\mathrm{ov})] =b^*/\gamma\), and \(\gamma\in(0,1)\) gives \(b^{**}>b^*\). \(\blacksquare\)
We adopt a single global tie-breaking rule throughout: at indifference, the human chooses trust and the AI chooses play. This resolves the boundary cases of [prop:teamopt,prop:myopic] and fixes the strict crossing in 3.↩︎