Performance Evaluation of High Power Microwave Systems Against UAVs A Probabilistic Antenna Propagation Framework with Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

We present an uncertainty-aware probabilistic framework for high-power microwave (HPM) counter-UAV performance under stochastic target motion, beam-pointing uncertainty, atmospheric propagation, and uncertain target susceptibility. It couples stochastic UAV kinematics, a jitter-to-gain model, free-space spreading, gaseous absorption, and rain attenuation, and a logistic energy--response model to derive closed-form statistics of received pulse energy and per-pulse and cumulative effectiveness probabilities. Slant-range variability arises from integrated acceleration noise. Received pulse energy is treated as a target-level exposure metric rather than the exact energy absorbed by an internal component. Closed-form moments and a log-normal approximation yield the mean per-pulse probability through Gaussian--Hermite quadrature and a dwell-time expression under an independent-pulse assumption. Analytical predictions closely match Monte Carlo results under matched assumptions. For a vulnerable-target threshold of $E_{\mathrm{th}}=10^{-2}\,\mathrm{J}$, the model predicts $\bar{P}_{\mathrm{kill}}\gtrsim0.4$ per pulse and $P_{\mathrm{kill,tot}}>99\%$ within about $0.1\,\mathrm{s}$ at kilohertz PRF. For a hardened target with $E_{\mathrm{th}}=10^{-1}\,\mathrm{J}$, it predicts $\bar{P}_{\mathrm{kill}}\approx2.2\times10^{-4}$ ($\approx0.02\%$) and $P_{\mathrm{kill,tot}}\approx20\%$ after $1\,\mathrm{s}$ at $1\,\mathrm{kHz}$ under the i.i.d. pulse assumption. Elasticity analysis identifies slant range as dominant ($S_{\bar{R}}\approx-2$), followed by aperture diameter and transmit power; pointing jitter and atmospheric variability are less influential in the evaluated regimes. Within its assumptions, the framework supports system sizing, trade-off analysis, and risk-aware mission planning.